The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

BREAKING: Fed’s Financial Stability Report Just Dropped (What You Need To Know)

Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.

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Tensions are rising. Aggressive actions are becoming commonplace. This isn't just sabre-rattling and posturing as war is a real possibility. It's not difficult to see why, at least what some of the motivation is. China's central bank is publicly discussing even more highly unusual steps to try to reign in the unfolding financial and economic backlash which was just confirmed by even more data.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US Commander Warns China Is Fast Becoming More Aggressive in Region
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-23/us-commander-warns-china-is-fast-becoming-more-aggressive-in-region Bloomberg Xi’s Cryptic Bond Comments Hint at PBOC Becoming More Like Fed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/xi-s-cryptic-bond-comments-hint-at-pboc-becoming-more-like-fed CNBC Philippine president says killing of a Filipino in South China Sea clash would be ‘very close’ to act of war
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/31/ferdinand-marcos-jr-philippine-president-talks-red-lines-in-south-china-sea.html Bloomberg Marcos Swipes at China, Vowing Not to Yield in Disputed Sea
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/marcos-swipes-at-beijing-in-vow-to-not-yield-in-south-china-sea Bloomberg China Ramps Up Warning on Bond Frenzy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/china-ramps-up-warning-on-bond-frenzy-with-pboc-selling-in-focus Dow Jones Chinese State Media Hint at Possible PBOC Bond Selling
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202405311908/chinese-state-media-hint-at-possible-pboc-bond-selling Nikkei Asia Foreign direct investment in China falls to 30-year low
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Foreign-direct-investment-in-China-falls-to-30-year-low https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You Won't Believe What China is Doing

More corporate mayhem brought on by the "uncertain market environment." Stocks of both Salesforce and Kohl's were hammered today as each company demonstrates in their own way just what the updated GDP numbers suggest. That latter data report also includes GDI which is almost certainly closer to the real economy all these other sources are projecting.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Salesforce shares tumble 20%, on pace for worst day since 2004
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/salesforce-stock-fall-earnings-revenue-miss.html Bloomberg  Salesforce Shares Plunge by Most Since 2008 After Weak Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/salesforce-gives-weak-sales-outlook-with-slowdown-fears-growing CNBC Kohl’s stock plummets 25% after massive earnings miss
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/kohls-kss-earnings-q1-2024.html Kohl's Kohl's Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Results
https://investors.kohls.com/news-releases/news-details/2024/Kohls-Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024-Financial-Results/default.aspx BEA  Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)
https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sales Force Issues Stark Warning to Businesses

More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.' Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Commercial real estate and financial stability – new insights from the euro area credit register
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202210_4~0aa7d44e15.en.html Reuters Explainer: European banks and their $1.5 trillion commercial property headache
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-banks-their-15-trillion-commercial-property-headache-2024-02-15/ S&P; Global Investors expect surge in bad commercial real estate loans at European banks
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/investors-expect-surge-in-bad-commercial-real-estate-loans-at-european-banks-81618608 FitchRatings Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Office
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024 https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Commercial Real Estate Bust Hits Europe (BADLY)

More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis nerdwallet  2024 State of Consumer Credit Report
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/credit-cards/2024-consumer-credit-report CNBC 25% of consumers recently used a buy now, pay later loan, report finds. What to know as they become popular
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/buy-now-pay-later-loans-are-second-only-to-credit-cards-in-popularity.html FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

“Buy Now Pay Later” Issues Stark Warning to the Economy

What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who came up with it no longer want to be the very purveyors of misinformation.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis George DeMartino Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context;=peri_workingpapers DeLong & Summers How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1988/06/1988b_bpea_delong_summers_mankiw_romer.pdf Brad DeLong Greater Depression
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/j--bradford-delong-argues-that-it-is-time-to-call-what-is-happening-in-europe-and-the-us-by-its-true-name Bank of England  Ben Bernanke to lead review into forecasting at Bank of England
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2023/july/ben-bernanke-to-lead-review-into-forecasting-at-bank-of-england Bank of England Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a review
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/independent-evaluation-office/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review Mervyn King Per Jacobsson Lecture: The World Turned Upside Down: Economic Policy in Turbulent Times
https://meetings.imf.org/en/2019/Annual/Schedule/2019/10/19/imf-seminar-per-jacobsson https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

BREAKING: Fed’s Financial Stability Report Just Dropped (What You Need To Know)

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