While the official unemployment rate remains at a low 3.9%, there is an epidemic in the US and other Western countries of men -- and now increasingly women -- without work.

These are millions of otherwise able-bodied working age adults who have given up on finding work, often driven to do so out of frustration and despair. It's gotten to the point where 1 in 6 prime working age men has no paid work at all. 

What is causing this?

And what can be done about it?

Because when an increasing percentage of your prime working age population stops contributing to economic productivity, not only do they suffer the consequences of diminished prosperity -- we all do.

For a deep dive into this pressing crisis, we're fortunate to speak today with Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and author of the book Men Without Work.

Get Nicholas' book here: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Without-Work-Americas-Invisible/dp/1599474697

Follow Nicholas at https://aei.org/


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#unemployment #jobs #depression 

10 Million Prime-Age Adults Giving Up On Work | Nicholas Eberstadt

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Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory.

Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' era

But despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, economic growth remains robust, inflation is lower but is proving sticky, unemployment remains under 4%, and the stock market is at all time highs. 

In short, the Fed's aggressively restrictive policies haven't cooled things down much. They've been so ineffective that even the Wall Street Journal is asking "Do interest rates really matter anymore?"

To find out, we have the great fortune of speaking today with perhaps the world's foremost living expert on interest rates, James Grant, founder and editor of the highly-respected market journal Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#interestrates #inflation #recession

Jim Grant: Inflation & Interest Rates Are More Likely To Rise Than Fall In The Years Ahead

The S&P 500 has recently had a near-term sell signal triggered, during a week where many Tech stocks -- including Nvidia -- sold off harder than the general markets.

This shouldn't be a cause for major concern. But it explains why the market is down from it all-time high 10 days ago, and may likely have farther to fall until the overbought conditions are fully worked off.

The latest slowing CPE inflation data gave Wall Street a little more hope on Friday that rate cuts may not be pushed as far into the future as has been currently feared.

And this gave a boost to bonds, brining the US 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.5%.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all this plus his firms latest trades in this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#nvidia #nvda #inflation

Near -Term Sell Signal Triggered For Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

If you' re planning on possibly purchasing or selling a car in the near future, or just curious about how the latest action in the auto market are impacting your current car's value, you'll want to listen up to today's guest.

We're fortunate to be joined today by auto expert and car dealership owner Yossi Levi, who will give us his latest boots-on-the-ground reporting on the key trends driving supply, pricing & lending in the car market right now.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#carprice #buycar #carlease

Are Car Prices Headed Down? | Yossi Levi

In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making.

And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions.
Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work.

Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in far below the consensus estimate.

This is important because when it comes to the markets, as well as a number of other issues central to our way of life, we may be walking dangerously close to a tipping point where the prevailing sentiment suddenly reverses and the herd bolts in an unexpected direction -- potentially leading to sharp changes most will be caught unawares by.

So what do we need to be keeping our eyes on most closely?

To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, and author of the book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.

We'll ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2024.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#socialunrest #bullmarket #sentiment

Should We Be More Worried About A Social Breaking Point Than A Financial One? | Peter Atwater

Stocks markets have had a massive run since November of last year and all the major indices -- the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ - have hit all-time highs this week.

US GDP growth for the current quarter is currently predicted to be 3.6%, global economic growth as measured by PMIs has turned positive for the first time in 2 years, the official unemployment rate remains below 4%, the most important stock to the markets -- Nvidia -- just beat expectations on earnings & revenues...

So it's unsurprising the bulls are feeling large & in charge right now. Talk of hitting S&P 6000 later this year is getting louder.

Is that likely?

In heady times like these, turning to the data & navigating by what it's telling us is often highly useful. Which is why we're fortunate to have one of the best technical analysts in the industry, Tom McClellan, joining us today to share his latest interpretation of the current market action.

Tom is watching several key indicators that, if their decades-long correlation with the stock market continues to hold, suggest a material correction is coming in the second half of this year.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarketcorrection #stockcrash #oilprice

10 Million Prime-Age Adults Giving Up On Work | Nicholas Eberstadt

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